How the new conductor wants to make the elephant dance again

Back in June 2010, long before Nokia brought in Elop as the new CEO, I predicted that Nokia’s salvation may come from a strategic alliance with Microsoft. With the announced strategic message to come out on the 11th of February, speculation is rife across the internet what the new strategy might look like.

So, here’s mine ­čśë

The message will be simple and clear and will be summarized in three points:

1. The alternative to Apple and the ‘pee in the pants’ ((c) former Nokia VP) strategy of the Android camp has to come from a two-legged strategy: Symbian and Windows Phone, through a deep, strategic alliance with Microsoft

2. MeeGo is phased out – hard to build a new ecosystem from scratch (and it’s easy to do: no legacy to support, no sales are jeopardized)

3. Symbian for cost-aware, Windows Phone for high end phones

In practice this will mean the death of Symbian^3 as well, but over time: declaring it now would kill a large part of Nokia’s sales during 2011-2012 (until the WinPhone comes out – who would buy a dead OS-based phone?); what’s in the production ┬ápipeline already will be the last Nokia phones based on Symbian. What will survive however is S40 for the low-end phones which are still the bread and butter of Nokia’s revenue. For high end, it will be all Windows.

There’s a subtle connection here to Microsoft’s announced plans to make Windows 8 available on ARM processors as well: this, combined with a likely unification with Windows Phone, will enable Nokia to build both ARM and Intel-based phones and tablets in the future, while leveraging the same software stack. It will be a clear differentiator compared with Apple or the Android camp and allows addressing different segments (e.g. business and consumer) with different offerings. Windows Phone also represents the last chance to enter to US market which, given the combined financial strengths of Microsoft and Nokia and a good understanding of the market by the former, is within reach.

(once again, this is a pure speculative post, based solely on intuition and interpretation of publicly available material; pure work of fiction)

P.S. It turns out, this is my 100th post in exactly 2 years and 4 months. That’s about 1 post every 9 days. D.S.

2 Responses to “How the new conductor wants to make the elephant dance again”

  1. Benny says:

    I just started writing some Meego app. The environment looks great. The software is available, great SDK.

    Hence, the strategy is easy: Meego as the new all Nokia platform, Symbian being phased out, and an allience with Microsoft to run Qt apps on WP7 phones. Silverlight is not the future.

  2. Mike says:

    Your definitely not alone in the way you think.

    http://justredoit.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/what-will-nokia-do/